Insights
The Drone Dilemma: Small Tech, Massive Threat.
By
J. Andrew Soares
This article explores the profound implications of the evolving landscape of drone warfare, particularly in light of Ukraine's recent "Spider Web" offensive where low-cost drones inflicted significant damage on a strategic bomber fleet. It delves into the escalating threat posed by small, inexpensive unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and the potential for these to be weaponized in large swarms, making traditional defense methods challenging.
The article also highlights concerns about the vulnerability of domestic infrastructure and populations if commercially ubiquitous drones (like those used for deliveries) were to be hijacked by malicious actors. It questions whether the current and proposed U.S. government investment in Counter-UAS (C-UAS) technology is sufficient to keep pace with the rapid advancements and proliferation of UAVs.
In the wake of Ukraine’s ‘Spider Web’ offensive, where 34% of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet was damaged or destroyed by ~100 drones, many call this event a turning point in drone warfare. Ukraine reportedly used drones that cost less than $1,000 each to destroy over 40 aircraft with estimated damages of $7B. While it was a sophisticated attack that had been meticulously planned over an 18 month period, it begs the question, what additional damage can bad actors do with this low cost technology, and how can a nation state effectively defend itself and its people from threat vectors that have dual-use application?
Israel has its ‘Iron Dome’ and the United States has initiated a layered defense concept tagged the ‘Golden Dome’, which are great for missile defense, but what happens when there is a brute force attack with thousands of drones? Identifying, intercepting, and neutralizing swarms is a very tall order especially as threats become smaller and smaller (think Black Hornet 4). Moreover, what happens when drones used for last mile delivery by company’s like Google' Wing, AmazonPrime Air, and Ziplineare commonly used in society? Will bad actors have the ability to highjack those assets and use them as weapons within our own borders?
For FY2025 the DoD requested $2.4 billion out of its $850B budget for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). Meanwhile, Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems (C-UAS) investment, which is focused on detecting, tracking, and defeating adversary drones, has reached $1.7B. While these numbers may seem large, they are quite small relative to the overall budget, and even with the reconciliation bill increasing spending $150B over the next 9 years, will the $1.3B in capital earmarked for C-UAS projects be enough to keep up as the UAV industry transforms and amplifies?
On the civilian side, with ~ 1M registered drones in circulation in the United States today and commercial drone deployment expected to triple to over 1.12M by 2028, the threat vectors continue to expand. While commercial drones do not have military grade weapons systems, that does not stop them creating chaos by targeting airplanes, power grids, or even dispersing or chemical agents into crowded areas.
The point is, if 100 drones can do that amount of damage in Russia, what can a fleet of 10,000 drones do if compromised? This problem obviously presents an opportunity and the best minds in the world are working with the DoD to solve it with advanced technology. Whether protecting hardware from being hacked with quantum proof encryption capabilities or deploying high-power microwave (HPM) weapons that operate by emitting concentrated bursts of electromagnetic energy that combat swarms solution providers are finding new ways to defend against new threats.